Trucking Risk and Insurance Podcast

The Ripple of Trump's Policies in the Great White North_ Insights from Mike McCarron

• John Farquhar & Chris Harris • Season 2 • Episode 103

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The Trump Effect on Canadian Trucking: Insights from Left Lane Associates' Mike McCarron

In this episode of the Trucking Risk and Insurance Podcast, host Chris interviews Mike McCarron from Left Lane Associates about the potential implications of the Trump administration on the Canadian trucking industry. 

Mike discusses his career trajectory, including his work with Left Lane Associates, and offers a nuanced perspective on how U.S. tariffs and policies might impact the Canadian economy and trucking sector. 

They delve into topics such as Canada's potential economic recession, immigration issues, and the contrast between Canadian and U.S. trucking operations. Mike emphasizes the complexity of the intertwined U.S.-Canadian economies, Trump's unpredictability, and the need for effective leadership in Canada to navigate these challenges.

Reach out to Mike:
https://leftlaneassociates.ca
mike@riteroute.ca

00:00 Introduction and Guest Welcome
00:34 Mike McCarron's Background and Left Lane Associates
02:40 The Trump Effect on Canadian Trucking
04:58 Tariffs and Economic Concerns
13:34 Immigration and Trucking Industry Challenges
18:44 Future of North American Manufacturing
22:44 Conclusion and Farewell

This week's host:

Chris Harris
Safety Dawg Inc: 
safetydawg.com
Chris@SafetyDawg.com
1 905 973 7056



Keeping it Safety Dawg Simple!
#trucksafety #truckinsurance #truckpodcast

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Chris Harris, Safety Dawg 1:

And welcome back to all of our listeners and viewers. Today on the show, we've got Mr. Mike McCarron from Left Lane Associates, and he's sharing his thoughts of the Trump effect. Very timely, I think. We are concentrating on basically the Canadian trucking world, but Mike has some strategic thoughts as to how The Trump administration may affect Canadian trucking. That's next on the Trucking Risk and Insurance Podcast. Here's Mike. Welcome to the Trekking Risk and Insurance Podcast. Mike, welcome back to the show. Uh, can you just take a second? And I know your history, uh, where you started out with MSN and then you were with wheels and now you are the, uh, one of the primary owners, I guess. Can't say you're the only owner. I don't know. Fill us in on Left Lane Associates.

Mike McCarron, Left Lane Associates:

So I started Left Lane, uh, after my non compete expired when I sold MSM to Wheels. Uh, I brought in a young partner, Pete Stefanovich, who I actually met at Wheels at the time, and we recognized then. The change in the landscape of trucking was going to drive a lot of the legacy carers to the exits. You know, we saw it was going to the economy. So, uh, we started the two of us as partners. We've grown the business now in nine years. We've done well over 100 deals. And, uh, recently Left Lane was recognized as Canada's 47th top growing company. Yeah, it's really nice. 753 percent growth, uh, the last three years. So business is booming. Frankly, it was booming so much. Chris and I resigned as president because I didn't want to work that hard. Uh, so Pete runs the business and Left Lane, we invested in a, in a startup called Rite Route Supply Chain Solutions to try and get a little bit more reoccurring revenue. And I run that business kind of as a figurehead. In both businesses, my main job is, is not any day to day. It's more leadership, board work, and really I tell people my job is a growth manager. Businesses don't grow, they die, so I have no day to day. I don't have to work too hard, but I work hard enough to make sure these things are growing and our people are successful.

Chris Harris, Safety Dawg 1:

Well, that's awesome. I'm glad to hear about the success of Leftly. Now, Mike, we're here today to talk about the Trump effect. Uh, how Trump may affect, uh, trucking in general, but specifically trucking in Canada. What do you think, uh, the Trump effect is going to be in Canada?

Mike McCarron, Left Lane Associates:

Well, I certainly am no expert on this. So what I did after the election, uh, Chris, was knowing that today's trucking wanted me to write on it, I just, I read and read and read and read, trying to come up with my own conclusions on this. And I'll start before I talk about the four or five areas. I think the one thing that we have to keep in mind is, uh, I didn't like either candidate for U. S. Electoral, frankly. Um, I don't live in the state, so selfishly, uh, I did cheer for Trump, uh, because I thought that that would be better for Canada and better for trucking, which, which a lot of people don't agree with, frankly. But I think the one thing to keep in mind is you're dealing with a very irrational, kind of neurotic. I don't like the guy because I think that he's, I just don't think he's got a lot of integrity. But my opinion on him is really relevant. The point is, is that he's a very rational person. And it's hard to apply rational thinking to rational people. And so, I don't think anyone knows what's going to happen with his unpredictability next three or four years. So a lot of my insights that I offered in my column were just based on me kind of connecting the dots, what all the experts in the U. S. are saying. Some of it concerns me. Some doesn't, and it's going to be interesting to read my column in four years and just see if I read a few of these correctly.

Chris Harris, Safety Dawg 1:

Uh, I certainly, there's some parts of your column I agree with and there's parts that I'm not in agreement with. I do agree that Trump is likely better for business as a general statement. But on the other hand, as you kind of alluded to, he's not as predictable as some of the presidents have been in the past. Um, and he has predicted that he's going to bring in tariffs. So, if he's successful in that, how are tariffs going to affect Canada's economy, kind of? Because trucking is directly related to the Canadian economy. How is it, what do you see as the future of tariffs coming in?

Mike McCarron, Left Lane Associates:

Well, you know, once again, what I see is what I read, and what other experts are saying, because I'm just not that close to it. But, kind of the sense I'm getting from what people are saying is that he's threatening a 20 percent across the board tariff, which would be disastrous to the Canadian economy. Um, I think they talked about, I think TD Economics and uh, Their report recently talked about the fact that a 20 percent tariff would impact the Canadian exports to the state by 5%, or approximately about 180 million dollars a day. So that's significant. You know, considering an industry that's gone through 28 months of downturn rates, that's all we need. But, a lot of the pundits also believe that, you know, Donald's an exaggeration, he's a bit of a blabbermouth, um, loves to grab attentions, and if you recall back in round one, the trucking industry was Absolutely churning with worry because Trump, uh, was threatening a 30 percent tax on auto experts. What was the tax? Nothing. So, I'm pretty sure that, you know, he was blabbering about it at every one of his circus roadshow stops. So, I would think it's about a 10%, which It's not going to help you con me at all, but I do believe that some of the other factors and things that he will influence, um, will potentially offset that. As I said, my biggest fear in all this is, is Hate for Trudeau. I think he called him a two timing, two bit liberal or something. I quoted him on my column. I don't have it for anybody. He does not like him at all. And he is a very, a very, very, very, uh, what's wrong with me for John? Uh, he's got a very long memory. And he likes to get revenge. So that's my biggest worry is that irrationality. Um, the good news is, I don't know how long, I don't even think Trudeau is going to last next November, so who knows where that will shake out, but I think a lot of the experts are predicting, uh, more of a tapered down tariff protection than he's threatening in his campaign speech.

Chris Harris, Safety Dawg 1:

Now, just so I can refresh your memory, because I do have your article in front of me, um, you quoted Trump as saying, a two faced, left wing lunatic.

Mike McCarron, Left Lane Associates:

That's right. He's right. Like, that might be the first thing I've agreed with with Trump. Like, I actually agree with what Donald says economically. I just don't like his delivery. I don't like his lack of integrity. I don't like the lack of the core that he's You know, the Oval Office is a pretty powerful job. There's no decorum. So he is definitely right about Trudeau. And as much as I don't like Trump, I like him a lot more, Trudeau.

Chris Harris, Safety Dawg 1:

Right now, I don't think I like any political leader at the moment. Um, you know, there's just getting off topic a little bit. There's just too much going on in the world in all these different hotspots that have been created. And now, in my mind, I have another worry of What are economies going to do? You know, I'm at the end of my working life, but still the economy affects me when I go to the grocery store and we've all seen groceries go up. Uh, if a 20 percent tariff was to come in on against the Canadian economy, I think that's going to really be hurtful. And push a lot of trucking companies out of business. Make left lane awful damn busy. Uh, I'll tell you.

Mike McCarron, Left Lane Associates:

I think that, you know, I think that's a fear, but I think it's important to understand too, and I learned this in the reading, Chris, just how intertwined our countries are, how hard it is to implement these changes. These are massive, massive changes. And there's also retaliation. I think. I think Trump's gonna want a piece of our oil. I think we might have a little more leverage than we think. Um, and so, you know, Trump can say whatever he wants, but we can retaliate. I just worry about having such weak leadership in Ottawa and, and, you know, Trudeau being bullied. So this stuff just doesn't happen easily. Even if you look at the timelines, you're talking. I believe it was 2007 for careful implementation. We've got NAFTA being renegotiated probably in 2026. So there is time. This is not something that's just going to happen overnight. Um, and as I said, I think we're all worried about the economy. It's, it's offload there that I, and I've watching them in the last 10 years, watched the middle class erode in front of my eyes. And, um, you know, I'm very worried about this. I'm worried about the country. I worry about the economy and. You know, like yourself, it's, it's really hard, uh, to apply rational thinking. To someone with that much power, that's so irrational.

Chris Harris, Safety Dawg 1:

Yeah, he's certainly unpredictable. Um, and as you already mentioned, and he said it out loud, that he wants revenge on certain people. And the people that he doesn't like, he does retaliate against, I believe. So, it'll be, we are in for interesting times, I think. What would it do if our economy slows down again? Um, well, let me ask you this. Do you think Canada is in a recession at the moment?

Mike McCarron, Left Lane Associates:

Well, I guess the way they define a recession, I believe, is two negative quarters of growth, so we're not there yet. But we are in bad economic condition, we are in bad shape. The debt, the lack of productivity. Um, like our productivity is so much lower than other countries. Um, Kind of this woke liberal culture. And, and like, I, I don't know where it's going. It's, it's, this is a Canada I don't recognize, frankly. Um, I ran into a friend of mine who runs a large company from Holland and they just can't believe that Canada's worked at them. So, you know, I, I'm more concerned long term, Chris, on where we're going. I'm not an economist. I do know trucking is, is really, really hurting the guys and the, and the, you It is really, really tough out there as you know. Um, and you know, I, I, I, I, there's a lot of fleets on life support. Uh, all the extra cash that was on the balance sheet from COVID's gone. Um, the gig carriers are going out of business every day. And the uncertainty and the disruption is, is crazy. And you know, I've talked a lot about the underbelly. And so the trucking industry is, is really on life support. More so than I've ever seen in my 41 years in the business.

Chris Harris, Safety Dawg 1:

Yeah. It's, and you mentioned, uh, the gig economy and we've had conversations in the past about the new word now, instead of driver Inc is, uh, misclassification. We've had that conversation. And by the way, um, Steed, is it James Steed?

Mike McCarron, Left Lane Associates:

James Teague, fantastic guy.

Chris Harris, Safety Dawg 1:

Yeah, he uh, heard our podcast where you were talking about Driver Inc. and he said, what a great podcast, finally somebody said it the way it is. Uh, so I would just Yeah, James,

Mike McCarron, Left Lane Associates:

James is a fantastic guy. Um, the bottom line is that, you know, they've taken, I believe, the wrong path, associations, and you know, the bottom line is, we all know it's not going anywhere, but that's one of, one of my biggest concerns with Trump is. You know, he's, he's threatening, he's going to close those borders and he's going to, he's going to get rid of illegal immigrants. Uh, which, you know, listen, I had a bunch of them working for me in California. And, you know, it's really hard to call some illegal immigrant, whether it be in the country, 25 years and they're working there, they're there, you know, what's off, but my concern, really, my concern is when those borders get shut, guess where they're coming. And we're all ready. You know, I see what immigration has done in Toronto. Uh, and I have no problem with immigration, we need it, but, you know, we can't continue to bring in a million and a half people a year and have, you know, no, no jobs for them, uh, no place to live. And we're racking up billions of billions of dollars in debt to pay for their health care and living while we figure out what to do with them. And, you know, one of my biggest fears with Trump is the influx of immigration. And of course, a lot of them end up, uh, after about two weeks of training, they end up driving their trucks across the country. And that's one of my biggest worries with Trump is Is what it's going to do to our immigration. We saw that the last time he was here, President.

Chris Harris, Safety Dawg 1:

Well, what's it going to do to immigration if they, as you suggested, flow into being a truck driver? Um, at the moment, I don't think there is a truck driver shortage because of the downturn of the economy and that's going to do nothing more than drive wages down for truck drivers because There's going to be, it's supply, um, it's going to be a supply crisis in that we're over supplied with truck drivers. And therefore we can hire inexperienced guys a heck of a lot cheaper. And of course, inexperienced guys or girls crash more. So it's devastating in many different ways, but from a safety point of view, I would hate that thought. And unfortunately though. I kind of agree. That's, they're going to be coming to Canada because they've already fled Mexico. Where else are they going to go?

Mike McCarron, Left Lane Associates:

They can. Like, it's, uh, you know, I, I, my son was in Europe for a wedding, uh, this summer. And he said, Dad, it's crazy. You know, you come through, uh, Customs at Pearson Airport. They've got these families there with, you lifesavings coming to the dream of Canada. Man, there's no dream here anymore. Like I, you know, I was walking, I was walking the dog in my Etobicoke and there's encampments in the parks now, and I feel sorry for these people. They're selling a dream, but ultimately a lot of them are ending up with a trucking business they're being taken advantage of to get Canadian citizenship. And, you know, you got a real problem when the UN. It's called our temporary, uh, temporary worker import program. Modern day slavery. That's a problem. That's a real problem. And, and, um, it's just more people to get into this system that is so corrupt. And it's so un worker friendly and it really bothers me this, this lack of safety and these human rights violations and it's just, it's, unfortunately it's starting to define our business and that really bothers me because I, I worry about our trucking industry's ability. To sustain this economy, the way we're moving it, if we continue the way we have in the last decade, this business is in big trouble in 10 years from now relative to our ability to keep Canada a competitive country.

Chris Harris, Safety Dawg 1:

I question whether Canada is a competitive country right at the moment. Or not. As we tape this, our dollar is down to, um, I think it's going to cost me a buck 41 to buy American, uh, an American dollar today. And that's the only way we can sell our exports because as you already said, our productivity sucks. So we've got to, we just, anyways, we just got to drop our dollar down to, to be able to sell so that we can keep people employed.

Mike McCarron, Left Lane Associates:

Oh, I know it's, I'll tell you one thing, Chris. I'm glad I used to own 600 trucks. I'm glad I don't anymore. And the only truck, the only truck I'm in the transportation business. We're North American trucking specialists, but the only truck that, that will ever be in my family is an F 150.

Chris Harris, Safety Dawg 1:

Yeah, well, not even a Dodge? I mean, come on, you know, hey, so what else if, I mean, do you really think Trump's going to come in with a 20 percent tariff on Canada?

Mike McCarron, Left Lane Associates:

I really don't. I think the experts think it'd be more like 10. I think be way harder to implement. I think Canada can do some retaliatory things. I think oil could be some leverage. But once again, I don't know but certainly the pundits I read believe that it's the it's a blabbermouth exaggeration factor and It's just the way it is. So I think it'd be tough, but I think there are some advantages to Trump being there. I think you're going to see a lot more investment in the United States. You know, we don't, we know what's happening with nearshoring. All these manufacturers are coming back. Uh, you know, COVID taught us a lot of lessons and one of them is making stuff halfway around the world is probably not the best thing for customers anymore. Uh, the nearshoring might not be coming back to Canada, but it's coming to North America. I think that's good for Canada, uh, because I think it's going to meet a lot of freight as much as it, it, it, it, it's not coming to Canada, I think that we'll see the, uh, secondary and tertiary effects of that. Um, I think that Trump's going to give the U. S. fleets an advantage over Canadian fleets, which is a concern of mine. Uh, you know, he's, he's going to be throwing tax breaks around. Um, he's going to reduce their, you know, he's going to reduce the, uh, environmental requirements and return more to carbon, which will give Canadian fleets a disadvantage. But I think a couple of things could be, could come to favour Canadians. Uh, one, I think the price of fuel is going to go down a lot. They figured that with Trump's, uh, kind of carbon pushback towards carbon, um, I think the price of oil is around, I don't know, 67, 68 bucks a barrel. They're predicting maybe a fourth down to 40 bucks a barrel. So when you figure that a truck's operating cost is heavily weighted on fuel, um, that's, that could be a big cost saving. I think one advantage that Canadian fleets will have in the States is that a lot of fortune 500 companies. are mandated to reduce your carbon footprint. They really are. They have to. And I, you know, I think that the one thing is, I think they are looking at lower emission fleets. And I think Canada has got a, might have an advantage over that, whether that manifests itself or not, whether Canadian fleets are sophisticated to have that as their sales message. But there's no doubt Canadians can truck better to Canada than Americans. So when there's more, there's more opportunities because your environment, you're friendly. There's more opportunities because there's going to be more manufacturing in the States. I'm hoping that that increased manufacturing. Increase amount of business, increase pro business environment of states, will bring business back to North America. And hopefully when Trudeau gets pushed out, it'll encourage the new regime of polyevs to start doing some things to make us competitive and start relying on Slavery to drive our economy, because that's what we're doing now. We don't make anything anymore.

Chris Harris, Safety Dawg 1:

Yeah, no, I, I too actually have some hope that if the tariffs come in, uh, on select items and at five or ten percent, and with our dollar, We will still be able to manufacture and export a lot of it to the U. S., and as you said, if he does manage to bring back some manufacturing to the U. S., we have a lot of the parts that the U. S. economy uses in their manufacturing process.

Mike McCarron, Left Lane Associates:

The bottom line is, stuff made here is better than stuff made over there. And I believe my whole, and this is just my thesis, is that all that nearshoring back to North America will be permanent. Um, it's not coming to Canada, unfortunately. It's going to Mexico and the US. Um, but it will affect Canadian companies. And as I said, it's going to mean, I think, a lot more freight in North America. And I'm, I'm hoping that will offset any tariff changes.

Chris Harris, Safety Dawg 1:

Beautiful. I think that was well said. Mike McCarran from, uh, Left Lane Associates. Appreciate your time. Thanks, Mike.

Mike McCarron, Left Lane Associates:

Thanks, buddy. Give my best to my old pal, Johnny.

Chris Harris, Safety Dawg 1:

I will. John couldn't make it this week, but his plan is to be back next week.

Mike McCarron, Left Lane Associates:

Awesome. Great talking to you, pal.

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Chris Harris

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John Farquhar

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